Friday, May 8, 2020
Ramifications of our Governments reaction to COVID-19 5/8/2020
Before I start into the topic at hand I want to touch on some of my family history. My great grandfather on my fathers side came to the US from the UK in the 1950's-1960's. He was in WW1 and served in the United Kingdom. When he arrived here in the US he moved to El Monte and purchased a small motel there which didn't amount to much and he eventually sold and moved on to retirement. My great grandfather on my mother's side had no military background and was born here in the US and moved from Ohio to California in the mid 50's when my mother was just a child. He decided real estate was a way to achieve financial stability. Coming from a restaurateur background he was fairly uneducated in real estate as he was an owner of a food service business prior to his mortgaging his home and purchasing a 1920's commercial building in the Inland Empire. He began with that commercial building and went on to accumulating several apartment complexes as well as several rental homes. When he passed my grandfather on my mothers sided, who came from an engineer background at Carnegie Steel in Ohio and migrated to Kaiser Steel here in California, he took over a large real estate empire which was largely in debt. He honed a business model that would allow him to pay off the debt within 15-20 years, which he utilized to achieve his goal. After his passing I took on the family business and at the beginning great depression era of 2008, which was actually beginning to show signs of cracks in the foundation around 2006 and lasted up to 2019 was brought on my the events of 911 and George Bush's decision to take us into a war which would last until almost the end of the Obama era of 2017. Of which the US never fully recovered/retracted its forces from the middle east. 3/15/2020 - COVID-19... I foresaw this being a much worse economic situation than the one we had in 2006-2012 and up to our final recovery in 2019. I began experiencing this pandemic with my own theories including the virus having been used as a biological weapon on the world by the Chinese government. My theory included various man-made strains of this COVID-19 being tested on it's own people and eventually being sent on to Italy, New York and other areas of the world. The reason for COVID-19 variants by location. I began with the understanding that when this pandemic subsided and even before it would bring anger, financial ruins and effect every aspect of normal life as we knew it. I understood when all was said and done we the effected would be looking for retribution/retaliation and a war with those responsible is inevitable. Stocks plummeted, jobs vanished, our government set up funding for all effected and not all received funding. Many bailouts were granted to airlines as well. It was the start of a dominoes falling down effect which I believe we won't recover from for 10-15 years to come as we haven't fully realized the magnitude of these gathered events, and will not even begin to fathom how deep it runs for months to come, not until government money runs out, renters are eventually evicted, banks begin to foreclose and the 30% jobless begin to see their lives fall apart one eviction at a time, one foreclosure at a time. 5/8/2020 California begins to "re-open" from the pandemic. Let me begin by stating "re-open" to our Governor looks almost exactly like the shut-down. Curbside pick-up, no dinning in restaurants, no socializing and no close quarters businesses allowed to operate. Opening up with curbside pick-up doesn't allow for financial gain. Shoppers have been shopping online and shipping many items since the beginning of this all and even before as we are an eBay and Amazon generation. So, there isn't any impulse buying in the same way we would entering a store and browsing around. Masks must be worn by shoppers as well as employees at all times, summer is approaching and its now 89-95 degrees outside on any given day, so masks make it almost impossible to breathe normally and show in an enjoyable manner. This will ensure the ongoing financial effects of this pandemic. I'll post again in a few months, I've positioned my stocks now I'm onto arranging financing the new wave of investments to come.